Demographic Features

Population Size and Composition

The Kenya Population and Housing Survey report (KPHC) 2009 showed that Mandera County had a population of 1,025,756 persons. This comprised 559,943 males (54.6%) and 465,813 females (45.4%). The county’s population was projected to be 1,399,503 persons, comprising 763,966 males and 635,537 females in 2017.

It was also projected that the population would be 1,699,437 persons comprising 927,695 males and 771,742 females in the year 2022.

Table 1: Population Projections by Urban Centers and Sub Urban Areas

Urban Center	2009 (Census)			2017 (Projections)			2020 (Projected)			2022 (Projected)
	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
Mandera	30,208	27,484	57,692	41,215	37,498	78,713	46,308	42,131	88,439	50,048	45,534	95,582
Elwak	13,125	11,243	24,368	17,907	15,340	33,247	20,120	17,236	37,355	21,745	18,628	40,372
Rhamu	14,161	9,876	24,037	19,321	13,474	32,795	21,708	15,139	36,847	23,462	16,362	39,823
Takaba	11,835	9,639	21,474	16,147	13,151	29,298	18,142	14,776	32,918	19,608	15,969	35,577
Total	69,329	58,242	127,571	94,590	79,463	174,053	106,278	89,282	195,560	114,862	96,493	211,355

Source: KPHC
Table 1 above gives the population projections by urban centers in the county.

Mandera Town is the most densely populated urban area of the county, while Takaba is the least populated.

The town is the oldest and main urban section of the county and its high population is attributed to the residents’ diverse economic activities. The town has small-scale traders; retailers, artisans, hoteliers, grocers and even cross-border traders.

Population Density and Distribution

Table 2: Population Distribution and Density by Sub-County

Constituency / Sub- County	Area (KM2)	2009 (Census)		2017 projection		2020 Projection		2022 Projection
		Population	Density	Population	Density	Population	Density	Population	Density
Mandera South	6,180.7	247,619	40	337,842	50	379,588	61	410,247	66
Mandera North	5,502	169,675	31	231,498	42	260,103	47	281,111	51
Mandera East	2,797	178,831	64	243,990	87	274,139	98	296,281	106
Lafey	3,377.1	109,856	33	149,884	44	168,405	50	182,006	54
Mandera West	4,778.5	161,701	34	220,619	46	247,880	52	267,901	56
Banissa	3,356.2	158,074	47	215,670	64	242,320	72	261,891	78
TOTAL	25,991.5	1,025,756	39	1,399,503	54	1,572,435	60	1,699,437	65

Source: Mandera County Development Planning Office

Mandera East that hosts the county headquarters in Mandera Town is the most densely populated constituency with 87 persons per square kilometer. This is projected to rise to 98 and 106 persons per square kilometer in 2020 and 2022 respectively, as a result of rural-urban migration, as locals seek greener pastures.

Mandera North is the least densely populated constituency with 42 persons per square kilometer, but which is projected to be 47 and 51 persons per square kilometers 2020 and 2022 respectively. Population distribution in the county affects infrastructure development and provision of social amenities.

Population Projection for Special Age Groups

Table 3: Population Projection by Special Age Groups

Age Group	2009 Census			2017(Projection)			2020 (Projection)			2022 (Projection)
	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
Under 5 (Preschool going age)	73,452	71,408	144,860	100,215	97,426	197,641	112,598	109,465	222,063	121,693	59,988	239,998
6-13 (Primary school going age)	153,315	125,560	278,875	209,177	171,310	380,487	235,024	192,478	427,502	254,007	114,364	462,031
14-17 (Secondary school going age)	59,323	37,328	96,651	80,938	50,929	131,867	90,939	57,222	148,161	98,284	37,959	160,128
15-35 (Youth Population)	167,299	13,4591	301,890	228,257	183,631	411,888	256,462	206,322	462,784	277,176	123,573	500,162
15-49 (Female reproductive age	-	153,638	153,638	-	209,618	209,618	-	235,520	235,520	-	254,542	254,542
15-64 (Labor force)	203,221	170,234	373,455	277,267	232,261	509,528	311,528	260,961	572,489	336,689	153,475	618,727
65+ ( the Aged population)	7,263	4,118	11,381	9,909	5,618	15,527	11,133	6,312	17,446	12,033	4,354	18,855
TOTAL	663,873	696,877	1,360,750	905,763	950,793	1,856,556	1,017,684	1,068,280	2,085,965	1,099,882	748,255	2,254,443

Source: County Development Planning Office (2017)

Table 3 shows the population projections as at 2017, 2020 and 2022 for selected age groups. The selection of the following groups was based on their significance in the socio-economic development of the County.

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